Watchdog or Lapdog?

Take a guess how many corporate accounting fraud cases the SEC has prosecuted through the first half of this year.

Give up? The answer is 79. And that’s the lowest level in over a decade, according to the Wall Street Journal.

A couple months ago, Craig M. Lewis, who heads the SEC’s risk division, unveiled the SEC’s “new”, pro-active approach – an accounting quality model that helps “assess the degree to which registrants’ financial statements appear anomalous.” The analysis will also look at the wording in financial reports concerning companies’ results and future prospects, particularly those under “management discussion and analysis.”

Sounds like a good idea, but…this is “new”?  I’m a bit surprised no one has thought of this before, but apparently that is the case. The SEC acknowledges that its previous means of uncovering fraud have been primarily passive and market-based (i.e., trading irregularities). Really? Isn’t that akin to always closing the stable door after the horse has bolted? Even my $30 tax software has an algorithm that alerts me to audit risk, based on the numbers in my return, before I file my taxes.

I don’t mean to cast stones. I appreciate that accounting fraud is actually very difficult to find, prove, and successfully prosecute. Gathering evidence requires detailed, often forensic accounting work to see whether a company has failed to report its results according to the then prevailing “accounting rules” (my emphasis). And proving there actually was a violation – most often relative to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) – includes an additional layer of difficulty because GAAP itself is often vague and malleable.

Case in point…in a recent accounting fraud prosecution in California involving a high-tech company, the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit overturned the conviction of the company’s chief financial officer because the government could not prove that his aggressive accounting in recognizing revenue violated GAAP. On the contrary, the appeals court actually opined that the government’s evidence showed he was “doing his job diligently” by skating right up to the line.

Mary Jo White, the SEC’s new chairwoman, has said that she wants to turn the agency’s attention back to what was once seen as its core mission: policing corporate disclosure to ensure everyone is protected. I wish her luck. It’s a crazy world out there, and there’s not much active oversight. Caveat emptor, my buyside brethren. Good thing I’ve got my trusty copy of Financial Shenanigans handy

Posted by: Mory Watkins

More On Overhang…

A couple weeks ago, I posted that the overhang of unsold private equity portfolio companies has never been higher in the history of the asset class. Today, I want to share more about the massive global private equity overhang, and its implications for corporate/strategic M&A.

First, a great graphic that essentially tells the whole PE story, globally, in one picture:

https://i0.wp.com/b-i.forbesimg.com/baininsights/files/2013/04/pe-report-forbes-52.gif (source)

  • The global overhang of private equity assets waiting to be sold is now approaching $2 trillion.
  • Three-quarters of the blockage is related to PE funds with a vintage between 2005 and 2008.
  • 90% of PE funds with a vintage between 2006 and 2008 have yet to return any capital to their LPs.

So there is an outsized supply of companies ready to be sold, to say the least.

But what about demand?

Market conditions are also converging for corporate buyers (the largest and most important channel for private equity exits) to drive strong demand:

  • As previously mentioned, corporate balance sheets are stronger than they’ve been in a long time. Cash balances are at all time highs.
  • External capital too is more than plentiful, and US markets, in particular, are awash. World financial assets are now nearly 10 times the value of the global output of all goods and services. Global capital has swollen past $600 trillion, tripling over the past two decades.
  • Public equity market gains, albeit chiefly in the US, are providing renewed appetite for growth, currency for deals, and a pathway for exits. The Dow and the S&P 500 have both regained pre-meltdown losses and have hit new all-time highs. If sustained, equity market gains will bode well for deal-making; increased M&A activity has always historically followed significant public market gains.

Important elements have thus aligned — flush balance sheets, cheap and available financing, and improved equities markets – to create real demand-side momentum.

Get ready for increased near term corporate/strategic deal-doing. I am confident that all the pieces are in place.

Posted by: Mory Watkins